Author(s)Joel E. Cohen
zero population growth
Social sciences (General)
Demography. Population. Vital events
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AbstractTo understand better a possible future constant global population that is demographically heterogeneous, this paper analyzes several models. Classical theory of stationary populations generally fails to apply. However, if constant global population size P(global) is the sum of all country population sizes, and if constant global annual number of births B(global) is the sum of the annual number of births of all countries, and if constant global life expectancy at birth e(global) is the population-weighted mean of the life expectancy at birth of all countries, then B(global) x e(global) always exceeds P(global) unless all countries have the same life expectancy at birth.
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The Global Family Planning Revolution : Three Decades of Population Policies and ProgramsRobinson, Warren C.; Ross, John A. (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-05-31)This volume helps fill the gap left from insufficiently archived details of family planning programs carried out in many developing countries from the 1950s through the 1980s of their operations, their commonalities, and their differences, with much useful information and informed analysis. The programs were complex undertakings in difficult settings that had little prior experience to draw upon. Not surprisingly, as the case studies described here demonstrate, no single strategy was available that could be employed across these diverse situations, and procedures that were successful in one country did not necessarily function well in another. The case studies also indicate that developing a successful program was as much an art as a science. The key ingredient was being able to distinguish when a somewhat radical new approach was needed and when only some fine-tuning was necessary. While not a focus of this book, the family planning programs had several important, indirect effects on the field of population studies that merit attention as part of the record. First, uncertainty about the programs' worth and how to measure the extent of their success spurred a great deal of research on the measuring and modeling of fertility and contraceptive practice, on fecundity issues, on the effect of marriage patterns on fertility, and on a host of related topics. Second, the programs greatly advanced the science of evaluation. Third, the programs led demographers to work with specialists from many other disciplines, including public health, economics, sociology, political science, and psychology. Finally, the family planning efforts attracted many new and talented people to the field of population studies. The 23 case studies presented here were the earliest national efforts to establish organized family planning programs for entire populations. The resulting chapters naturally vary in terms of their balance of history, analysis, and personal reflections given the wide diversity of national contexts and program types. The study's overall conclusion is that, for the most part, the family planning program "experiment" worked: policy and program interventions contributed substantially to the revolutionary rise of contraceptive use and to the decline in fertility that has occurred in the developing world in the past three decades.
Population, Poverty, and Sustainable Development : A Review of the EvidenceBongaarts, John; Cleland, John; Das Gupta, Monica (2011-06-01)There is a very large but scattered literature debating the economic implications of high fertility. This paper reviews the literature on three themes: (a) Does high fertility affect low-income countries' prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction? (b) Does population growth exacerbate pressure on natural resources? and (c) Are family planning programs effective at lowering fertility, and should they be publicly funded? The literature shows broad consensus that while policy and institutional settings are key in shaping the prospects of economic growth and poverty reduction, the rate of population growth also matters. Recent studies find that low dependency ratios (as fertility declines) create an opportunity for increasing productivity, savings and investment in future growth. They find that lower fertility is associated with better child health and schooling, and better health and greater labor-force participation for women. They also indicate that rapid population growth can constrain economic growth, especially in low-income countries with poor policy environments. Population growth also exacerbates pressure on environmental common property resources. Studies highlight the deep challenges to aligning divergent interests for managing these resources. However, part of the pressure on these resources can be mitigated by reducing the rate of population growth. Although family planning programs are only one policy lever to help reduce fertility, studies find them effective. Such programs might help especially in the Sub-Saharan African region, where high fertility and institutional constraints on economic growth combine to slow rises in living standards.
Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in East Asia PacificMoroz, Harry; Ikeda, Yuki; Umapathi, Nithin; Flochel, Thomas (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11-18)This background paper was prepared for the East Asia Pacific aging report. The East Asia and Pacific region grew at an unparalleled rate in the past 50 years. This economic boom is partly attributable to unprecedented demographic changes in East Asia
during this period. But demographics are only part of the story. The size of the economic bonus or burden which results from population aging depends on how policy influences labor force participation, savings, human capital accumulation and total factor productivity.