Perspektivy Transatlantického obchodního a investičního partnerství: výhody a možná rizika

Abstract

It is possible that the economic condition of Europe after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 prompted idea of trade liberalization. This diploma thesis deals with the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a proposed free trade agreement between the European Union and the United States of America. Main goal of the thesis is to provide economic evaluation of the deal, and to assess the claim that TTIP would be beneficial for the European Union member states. Main used method is a theoretical analysis supplemented by regression analysis. The theoretical part is focused on basic economic principles of international trade and related concepts. Main tools used to assess this agreement are described in more detail as well. The analytical part deals with economic linkages between the two regions, with emphasis on the development and current status of non-tariff barriers to trade. The thesis also contains a summary of potential benefits and risks. Finally, a potential impact of TTIP on the Czech Republic and the issue of Brexit is presented. The European Union and the United States of America are linked by strong economic ties. However, trade barriers between those two entities still exist and hamper international trade. The analysis indicates that if the contract was to be impactful and significant, it must focus on a substantial reduction of bilateral non-tariff barriers to trade. This implies that TTIP could interfere with sectoral regulations. In addition, it is not certain that achieved revenues would be automatically higher than costs given the number of perceived risks. Panel data gravity models are used to quantify the potential impact of trade liberalization on export of goods of the EU28 countries to the USA. Significant elimination of trade barriers could increase EU exports to the USA by more than 20%.