Demokratijos įtvirtinimo Afrikoje problema: režimą palaikančių veiksnių lyginamoji analizė
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AbstractAlthough most of the newly established democratic regimes in Africa did not have prerequisites for survival, Freedom House counts several long-lasting democracies in this region. Different theoretical approaches emphasize different reasons for the survival of democracy. The requirements most often applied in the context of fully established democratic regimes consist of the following elements of consolidated democracy: free and lively civil society, relatively autonomous political society, the rule of law, the existence of state bureaucracy, institutionalized economic society. However the survival of democracy does not necessarily require all the elements of consolidated democracy, although it may require some other than these conditions being present. Therefore a question can be raised about the reasons (or a set of them) guaranteeing the survival and consolidation of democracy in African countries. This thesis analyzes and compares the existing democratic practice in African countries and attempts to identify factors that guarantee the survival of democracy. The following tasks were implemented in order to achieve this goal. First, different theories highlighting factors influencing democratic consolidation were analyzed. Then several variables related to politics, economy, culture, external factors and regime support were measured and compared using the Boolean algebra method. The results obtained show the following important implications and let us make the following considerations about the democratic regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa. First of all, the results of the Boolean comparative analysis show that, for democracy to survive in the countries examined, a set of two favorable factors is necessary. There must be favorable political and economical conditions for democracy to persist. The political factors include first of all the strength of the state (or stateness). Other political factors examined, that is, parliamentarism and the British colonial legacy, are not necessary for democracy to survive. The strength of the state must include accountability and political stability with an absence of violence. Accountability must be present for democracy to persist in any case. However if the second condition – political stability – has a lower level, the democracy might still exist if supported by a set of other necessary conditions. In this case, all the other elements of stateness must be present, as well as some conditions of a different base, such as economic factors. The economic conditions necessary for democracy include high GDP per person and high literacy level. In case these are absent, low Gini index in combination with conditions of a different type might be sufficient for a democratic regime to survive. Last but not least, a democratic regime must be supported by an absolute majority of society, otherwise there should be Christianity and democratic neighbours present. This consideration however still needs to be verified by additional research. The results obtained give important considerations allowing to make forecasts about newly established democracies in Africa. They let us draw a conclusion that the only newly established democracy which should continue to follow the democratic road is Ghana. The other two – Lesotho and Senegal – are somewhat in an uncertain position. The results also show the importance of complex and multi-dimensional research in attempts to find the reasons for the survival of democracy in Africa. It is obvious that the reasons for a long-lasting democracy in Africa are interrelated.