GLOBAL THREAT LANDSCAPE IN 2018

Abstract

The global terrorism threat has become decentralised, unpredictable, hard-to-detect and resilient with regenerative capacities. The global jihadist movements, principally the so-called Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda, have glocalised to exploit indigenous grievances, recruit aspiring jihadists and fight for local and global causes. Overall, both IS and Al-Qaeda have become underground terror networks. In 2018, three trends are likely to define the global terrorism landscape: IS is transforming itself from a ‘caliphate’-building entity to a global terrorist movement; IS is decentralising, shifting its centre of gravity from Iraq and Syria to its multiple wilayat and divisions in different countries; Al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria will capitalise on the vacuum left by IS and exploit the fragile and unstable situation in post-IS Syria. In order to prevent IS’ re-emergence and losing the hard-fought victory, it is imperative that the international community address the underlying conditions that facilitated the rise of IS, AlQaeda and other militant groups in Iraq and Syria, the issues that give sustenance to other terrorist and militant groups, and support governments that lack capabilities to fight terrorism