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Substitution and Technological Change under Carbon Cap and Trade : Lessons from EuropeThe use of carbon-intense fuels by the power sector contributes significantly to the greenhouse gas emissions of most countries. For this reason, the sector is often key to initial efforts to regulate emissions. But how long does it take before new regulatory incentives result in a switch to less carbon intense fuels? This study examines fuel switching in electricity production following the introduction of the European Union s Emissions Trading System, a cap-and-trade regulatory framework for greenhouse gas emissions. The empirical analysis examines the demand for carbon permits, carbon based fuels, and carbon-free energy for 12 European countries using monthly data on fuel use, prices, and electricity generation. A short-run restricted cost function is estimated in which carbon permits, high-carbon fuels, and low-carbon fuels are variable inputs, conditional on quasi-fixed carbon-free energy production from nuclear, hydro, and renewable energy capacity. The results indicate that prices for permits and fuels affect the composition of inputs in a statistically significant way. Even so, the analysis suggests that the industry s fuel-switching capabilities are limited in the short run as is the scope for introducing new technologies. This is because of the dominant role that past irreversible investments play in determining power-generating capacity. Moreover, the results suggest that, because the capacity for fuel substitution is limited, the impact of carbon emission limits on electricity prices can be significant if fuel prices increase together with carbon permit prices. The estimates suggest that for every 10 percent rise in carbon and fuel prices, the marginal cost of electric power generation increases by 8 percent in the short run. The European experience points to the importance of starting early down a low-carbon path and of policies that introduce flexibility in how emission reductions are achieved.
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Ukraine : Investment Plan for the Clean Technology FundThis report describes the Ukraine Investment Plan for the Clean Technology Fund. Ukraine is a lower middle income country, with GDP per capita of US$1,940 in 2006. After a decade of steep economic decline, economic growth rebounded in 2000 and GDP grew by about 7.5 percent per year on average until 2007. To recover its economic growth and improve competitiveness, Ukraine will need to address a combination of challenges. Improving the energy efficiency of the economy and thereby reducing its vulnerability to further import price shocks, as well as modernizing the energy sector to make it more efficient, are among those challenges. The Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the Period until 2030, adopted in 2006, provides a platform for addressing these issues over the three distinct phases of development envisaged for the country. Energy and industry are the priority sectors for intervention as they account for 69 percent and 22 percent of country s GHG emissions, respectively The interventions with the highest potential for reducing GHG emissions in Ukraine are: (1) energy efficiency; (2) increased use of nuclear power; (3) implementation of high efficiency combustion technologies and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for new coal-fired plants; and (4) renewable energy.
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Meeting the Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand in Latin America and the CaribbeanEconomic growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean region has picked up considerably during the past decade or so. This growth has been aided by widespread (earlier and more recent) investments in power generation, transmission, and distribution that increased the provision of electricity services to households, commerce, and industry. This report evaluates a number of critical issues for the power sector in the region in the coming two decades. These include the expected rates of increase in the demand for electricity, the required supply of new generating capacity, the technology and fuel mix of that generating capacity, and the carbon dioxide emissions of the sector. One of the key contributions of this study is the aggregation of individual country plans to the regional and sub regional levels, using a consistent set of data and a common methodology. The report also assesses the important roles of hydropower and natural gas, the way other clean and low-carbon resources can be expanded, the potential and benefits of greater electricity trade, and the role of energy efficiency. By considering the region as a whole, the report highlights the role that individual countries will play in shaping the region's aggregate power sector.