The Role of Agriculture in a Modernizing Society

Abstract

China's success in addressing food
 problems after adopting the reforms in 1978 has been nothing
 less than remarkable. Grain output (rice, wheat and maize)
 has almost doubled and most hunger has been eliminated. Ever
 since China embarked on its reform agenda more than 30 years
 ago, its economic growth and poverty reduction have been
 nothing less than remarkable. Agriculture has been an
 important contributor to these developments. Since 1978,
 China has almost doubled its cereal production (rice, wheat
 and maize) and it is now feeding 1.3 billion people, or 20
 percent of the world's population, while having less
 than 11 percent of the world s agricultural land and less
 than 6 percent of its water. New challenges are presenting
 themselves for China's agriculture, and old ones are
 resurfacing. High (land saving) Total Factor Productivity
 (TFP) growth and increasingly open domestic and
 international markets, combined with grain self-sufficiency
 targets, a multitude of very small, fragmented production
 structures, and distorted land and labor markets have
 defined Chinese agriculture over the past three decades. The
 relative importance of agriculture s three problems in
 policymaking thus evolves during the course of development
 away from the food to the farm and field problems. This
 shift has however recently been compounded by a resurgence
 of the food problem, as global supplies struggle to keep up
 with demand. China's agriculture anno 2030 will be
 predominantly a modern commercial smallholder agriculture
 that ensures self-sufficiency in cereal food (rice and
 wheat), but not in cereal feed (maize and soybeans). The
 sector will maximize rural employment opportunities in labor
 intensive high value agricultural products and act as a
 diligent custodian of its precious natural resources.