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TanzaniaThis study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain. Persistence of unmanaged risks in agriculture is a cause of great economic losses for farmers and other actors along the supply chains (for example, traders, processors, and exporters), affecting export earnings and food security. The agricultural sector risk assessment is a straightforward methodology based on a three-phase sequential process. Phase analyzes the chronological occurrence of inter-seasonal agricultural risks with a view to identify and prioritize the risks that are the drivers of agricultural GDP volatility. This report contains the findings and recommendations of the first phase and includes the identification, analysis, and prioritization of major risks facing the agricultural sector in Tanzania, as well as recommendations regarding key solutions. Chapter one gives introduction and context. Chapter two contains an overview of the agricultural sector and its performance, as well as a discussion of key agro-climatic, weather, and policy restrictions and opportunities. Chapter three includes an assessment of major risks (that is, production, market, and enabling environment risks) facing key export and food crops. Chapter four presents an estimate of historical losses due to realized production risks and a correlation of such losses with production volatility. Chapter five provides insights into the exposure to risks by different stakeholders and their actual capacities, vulnerabilities, and potential to manage agricultural risks. Chapter six presents a risk prioritization by different supply chains and discusses the possible solutions, as well as specific recommendations for the agricultural sector development program (ASDP).
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Integrating Border Regions : Connectivity and Competitiveness in South AsiaDeeper regional integration can be beneficial especially for regions along international borders. It can open up new markets on opposite sides of borders and give consumers wider access to cheaper goods. This paper uses data from five contiguous districts of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh in the northeast of the subcontinent to measure the degrees of trade complementarity between districts. The paper illustrates that the regions are underexploiting the potential of intraregional commerce. Price wedges of up to 90 percent in some important consumption products along with measures of complementarity between households' production and consumption suggest the potential for relatively large gains from deeper trade integration. Furthermore, an examination of a specific supply chain of tea highlights factors that help industries scale up, aided by institutions such as an organized auction and decent physical and legal infrastructure. However, districts alike in geography but located across international boundaries face different development prospects, suggesting that gains from reduced "thickness of borders" would not accrue automatically. Much rests on developing intrinsic industry competitiveness at home, including the reform of regulatory and business practices and infrastructural bottlenecks that prevent agglomeration of local economies.
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Myanmar : Rice Price Reduction and Poverty ReductionMyanmar is a low-income agrarian country
 with a high poverty rate. The livelihood of many poor people
 depends on the performance of agriculture, especially the
 rice sector. Rice accounts for 70 percent of Myanmar s total
 cultivated area and 30 percent of the value of its
 agricultural production. Increasing returns to rice
 production will be the key to increasing farm wages and
 incomes in the short to medium run. Higher rice production
 will also help maintain low food prices, improve food
 security, and reduce poverty, as an average household spends
 61 percent of total household income on food, and rice is a
 major component of the food basket. Price fluctuations are a
 common feature of well-functioning agricultural markets.
 Price fluctuation should be expected in such markets, since
 output varies from period to period due to factors such as
 weather, pests and disease, and because demand and supply
 are inelastic in the short run. Moreover, some amount of
 seasonal and spatial price movements should be tolerated,
 since these usefully signal scarcity in the market and
 facilitate a supply response, foster arbitrage between
 surplus and deficit regions, as well as guide post-harvest
 handling, storage and trade decisions. However, in the case
 of Myanmar s rice market, several factors serve to
 exacerbate price fluctuation and make them more pronounced
 and unpredictable (volatile) and lead to serious negative
 impacts for consumers and farmers. Rice price volatility is
 of concern to the Myanmar government given the high
 importance of rice for farm incomes and consumer
 expenditures, and thereby for food security and poverty
 reduction. On the production side, prices volatility
 inhibits farmers supply response and is a disincentive for
 greater use of purchased inputs and increased investments.
 Volatility can also discourage rice-producing farmers to
 diversify their cropping patterns to high-value crops if
 they cannot buy cereals for consumption at more predictable
 prices. On the consumption side, rice price spikes can cause
 increased food insecurity for those not wealthy enough to
 maintain consumption levels at the higher prices. For people
 spending 50 percent of their income on rice, a 20 percent
 temporary increase in rice prices would lead to an
 approximate 10 percent decline in effective income. This is
 a large shock, often equivalent to households spending on
 health and education.