Climate Change and Extreme events: Vulnerability of Energy systems in Cuba

Abstract

The island of Cuba is located in the Caribbean Sea to the south of Florida (United Stated of America). Its geographic characteristic, lengthened and narrow, makes it especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather. Extreme events affect the entire economical sector, include the energy sector. Depending on the event, an energy source can be more affected than another one. The projected energy supply scenarios for Cuba foresee, in spite that the energy sector will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, the introduction of renewable energy sources up to their maximum potential and nuclear energy at the end of the study period. The study took into account two scenarios, a Business as usual or reference and GHG mitigation. It is expected in the GHG mitigation scenario that the structure of the installed capacity for energy production in 2030 will be: 62.3% fossil fuels, 20.1% wind, 7.7% biomass, 6% hydro and 3.7% nuclear. The paper carries out an analysis of the vulnerability of these energy sources to the climate change and extreme events, and how climate change and climatic predictions should be taken into account in the country energy planning. A model is elaborated starting from the existing data, and that permits to figure out the most relevant parameters and their dependence on either the different energy source alternatives or their vulnerability. Pollutant emissions question is addressed too, pointing out the influence of the possible different alternatives.