An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica
Contributor(s)NU. CEPAL. Sede Subregional para el Caribe
ABASTECIMIENTO RURAL DE AGUA
NIVEL DEL MAR
RURAL WATER SUPPLY
Full recordShow full item record
AbstractThe agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country.
Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments.
To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively.
As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops.
The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario.
The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.
.--I. Introduction and Background.-- II. Literature Review.--III. The agricultural sector in Jamaica.--Iv. Estimating the impact of Climate change.--V. Adaptation.-- VI. Conclusions and Recommendations.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Rural Transport : Improving its Contribution to Growth and Poverty Reduction in Sub-Saharan AfricaBanjo, George; Gordon, Henry; Riverson, John (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04-15)Poverty reduction is a long-standing development objective of many developing countries and their aid donors, including the World Bank. To achieve this goal, these countries and organizations have sought to improve smallholder agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as part of a broader rural development agenda aimed at providing a minimal basket of goods and services in rural areas to satisfy basic human needs. These goods and services include not only food, health care, and education, but also infrastructure. As a result, rural transport remains a constraint to increasing agricultural productivity, achieving rural growth, and thus alleviating rural poverty. The first major finding of the review of rural transport theory and practice is that many of the approaches needed to improve the impact of rural transport interventions on poverty reduction are known, particularly from the work of the Rural Travel and Transport Program (RTTP) of Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program (SSATP). Unfortunately, many of the recommended approaches remain untested within Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the pilot scale, notwithstanding their influence on rural transport policy and project design in other operational regions of the Bank. For SSA, these are missed opportunities. Even where SSA countries have applied these approaches, institutional and financial sustainability and scaling up local successes remain significant challenges for both their agriculture and transport sectors. The second key finding is that rural households are rarely the point of focus in the design of rural transport interventions in SSA, even though a methodology to allow this focus has been developed and successfully tested in several pilot projects since the 1980s, the result is that the transport needs of rural households continue to be analyzed and understood by means of an indirect assessment of those needs, which means that most projects have a less than desirable impact on improving the rural access and mobility situation of such households.
The Rural Investment Climate : Analysis and FindingsWorld Bank (Washington, DC, 2013-03-11)Interest in investment climates has emerged relatively recently. In the 1960s and 1970s, governments in many countries believed they should play a direct role in rural credit, input supply, production, trade, transport, distribution, and even marketing. However, in the 1980s and 1990s, government-dominated systems fell into disgrace because of poor performance. For the rural sector, the primary focus had traditionally been on agriculture, particularly commercial agriculture and agribusiness, which were perceived to be the main drivers of rural growth. This study's essential findings and policy implications are organized into the following six chapters. Annexes provide supporting material. Chapter two presents an overview of related work and of the literature; it also describes the subsequent chapters' methodological framework, including new ways of addressing questions of endogeneity in these kinds of surveys while seeking to isolate cause and effect. Chapter three, by applying econometric analysis, measurably extends the examination of enterprise performance and investment climate constraints initiated in RIC1 (first rural investment climate). A rigorous examination of enterprise dynamics and entrepreneurial choice is developed in chapter four. Aiming to highlight the differing effects on Rural Nonfarm Enterprises (RNFEs), chapter five draws together the main implications RIC2 findings on the rural investment climate in the three country pilots. Community-level influences also matter, and chapter six examines how the local IC and other community characteristics shape the environment for economic activity. Conclusions and recommendations appear in chapter seven, including suggestions for using RIC results for policy reform and for targeting the rural public expenditures needed to foster improvements in the rural investment climate. The annexes describe the databases employed and the methodologies used in the study, as well providing detailed regression results.
Dynamics of Rural Growth in BangladeshWorld Bank Group (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05-31)The rural economy in Bangladesh has been
a powerful source of economic growth and has substantially
reduced poverty, especially since 2000, but the remarkable
transformation and unprecedented dynamism in rural
Bangladesh are an underexplored, underappreciated, and
largely untold story. The analysis identifies the key
changes occurring in the rural economy, the principal
drivers of rural incomes, the implications for policy, and
related actions to foster future growth, further reduce
poverty, and improve food security and nutrition. A
substantial strength of this study is its empirical
foundation, consisting of three sets of detailed data on
rural households. Two of the datasets are unique in tracking
the same set of households for more than two decades. These
data make it possible to examine how change is occurring
within and among rural households; they shed considerable
light on trends that tend to be obscured at more aggregate
levels of analysis. Nationally representative surveys and
aggregate secondary data provide complementary and
contextually rich insights into the household data.