Policy Research Working Paper
improvements in child survival
decline in fertility
infant mortality rate
Urban Population Growth
child mortality rate
Population Growth Rates
number of children
Current Account Balance
children per woman
participation of women
purchasing power parity
Private Capital Flows
Foreign Direct Investment
capital market development
gross domestic product
Current Account Balances
freedom of movement
movement of people
segments of society
Full recordShow full item record
AbstractWhat will South Asia look like in 2025? The optimistic outlook is that India, which accounts for 80 per cent of the regional economic output, is headed towards double-digit growth rates. South Asia too will grow rapidly, primarily due to India. The pessimistic outlook is that, given huge transformational challenges facing the region, growth should not be taken for granted. Which of these two outlooks is likely to prevail? This is what this book is all about. It is about the future, and not the past, and how to make smart choices about the future. There is strong empirical justification in favor of the optimistic outlook. Growth will be propelled higher by young demographics, improved governance, rising middle class, and the next wave of globalization. There is democracy, for the first time since independence, in all countries in the region. Young demographics will result in nearly 20 million more people joining the labour force, every year, for the next two decades. Almost a billion people will join the ranks of the middle class. India's middle class is well-educated, enterprising, innovative, and more demanding of better services, products, and governance. The region will benefit from the new wave of globalization in services, and increased international migration and human mobility. Indeed the drivers of growth seem to have already moved from the rich world to the poor world. The room for catch-up is huge, given the big gap in average income between South Asia and the rich countries.
Copyright/LicenseAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Russian Federation : The Demographic Transition and Its Implications for Adult Learning and Long-Term Care PoliciesWorld Bank (Washington, DC, 2011-01)This report describes the demographic transition in the Russian Federation and its implications for adult learning and long-term care policies. The population of Russia is aging and declining rapidly compared to other European nations. Russia's current age structure results from decades of complex demographic trends that have created a population structure with increasingly fewer young people. Women are having fewer children and are waiting longer to have children. Russia's mortality remains higher than in other developed societies. This high mortality is due to an unusually high incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries among adult men. Two key challenges face Russia. The first challenge is whether public expenditure on pensions and health care will become unsustainable as the size of the elderly population increases. The second challenge is whether declining population sizes will reduce the size of the labor force and hence reduce economic growth.
Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in BrazilJorgensen, Ole Hagen (2011-01-01)This paper analyzes the macroeconomic
implications of population aging in Brazil. Three
alternative yet complementary methodologies are adopted, and
depending on policy responses to the fiscal implications of
aging, there are two main findings: First, saving rates
could increase and not necessarily fall as a consequence of
aging in Brazil -- thus contradicting conventional views.
Second, lifetime wealth across generations could increase --
as capital deepening generates a second demographic
dividend. Two policy responses to aging are emphasized:
First, a structural policy response of linking mandatory
retirement (or entitlement) ages to increasing life
expectancy would boost labor supply and reduce the fiscal
costs of aging. Second, in terms of preferable parametric
policy responses, the second demographic dividend will be
promoted to the highest extent by keeping taxes and debt
unchanged while allowing public pensions to adjust downward.
Such a policy response would keep pensions from further
crowding out private saving -- thus balancing capital
accumulation with intergenerational income distribution. In
conclusion, Brazil will not necessarily experience a fall in
saving and growth, but if government policies are
appropriately, adequately, and timely formulated, population
aging is likely to lead to substantial capital deepening and
increases in lifetime income, wealth, and welfare.
Ethiopia : Re-Igniting Poverty Reduction in Urban Ethiopia through Inclusive GrowthWorld Bank (Washington, DC, 2012-03-19)Ethiopia in the decade up to 2005 has
been characterized by robust growth rates of the urban
economy, where a still limited share of the population
lives. The urban economy has been estimated to contribute at
least half of gross domestic product (GDP) (53 percent in
2002/03) and to explain a significant part of its growth.
Only an estimated 12.6 percent of the poor live in urban
areas and the overwhelming concentration of poverty in rural
areas seem unlikely to be reversed in the medium term.
Sustained growth, to be shared among a relatively small part
of the population, could have been expected to reduce
poverty significantly in urban areas, but this has not been
the case. While poverty incidence remains lower in urban
than in rural areas, rural areas have made significant
progress and the rural-urban gap in poverty incidence is decreasing.