Climate Change And Vulnerability Impact Assessment Study of the Agricultural Adapatability in Tanzania
AbstractFuture climate change and variability is one of the top priorities for most countries and regions in the world. Unpredictability and uncertainty regarding future climate is making adaptation forecasts and mitigation of climate change on societies a real challenge for both climate scientists and policy makers. The climate system is not a static entity. On the contrary, changes are part of the mechanism. The impact of human activities, however, has accelerated processes inducing the need for rapid adaptation and mitigation strategies. This thesis focuses on understanding how hydrology and climate influence vulnerability and adaptation of rural Tanzania. This is done by looking at social, climatic and biophysical factors of two villages located in western Tanzania. Analysis of local climate and hydrology factors showed that precipitation and evapotranspiration amounts were about thesame, resulting in small margins for error for successful small scale agriculture. Investigation of various strategies used by farmers as a response to present climate variability are insufficient, and raise concerns about the potential hazard of future climate change. Most of the strategies rely on socio-ecological services from the surrounding environment, and therefore would face dire consequences as a result of future climate change. A wider understanding of successful current adaptation and resilience strategiesand their systematic application would increase the ability of farmers to meet the challenges of future climate volatility.