Interpretive review of conceptual frameworks and research models that inform Australia's agricultural vulnerability to climate change
KeywordsAgricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Agriculture, Land and Farm Management, Agricultural Land Management
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AbstractAgriculture in Australia is highly vulnerable to climate change. Understanding the sectors vulnerabilityis critical to developing immediate policy for the future of the agricultural industries and theircommunities. This review aims to identify research priorities (frameworks and models) for assessingvulnerability of the Australian agriculture sector to climate change. It achieves this through threeobjectives: (i) review frameworks for conceptualising vulnerability in agriculture; (ii) documentoperational models that may contribute to the immediate analysis of vulnerability in Australianagriculture; and (iii) identify gaps in frameworks and models capacity for analysing the vulnerabilityof Australian agriculture to climate change. These were achieved by undertaking a literature reviewand organising a workshop of Australian agricultural climate change modelling experts. Currentunderstanding of agricultural vulnerability uses the outcome vulnerability conceptual framework, itis linear and dependant on the biophysical models which have been developed. Three priorities forbiophysical modelling research were identified: expansion to cover all major agricultural industries;address spatial gaps (e.g. south-west Australia); and develop scenarios for shifting between landuses.However, there is little known on the contextual vulnerability of the Australian agriculturalsector, therefore strategic investment into contextual vulnerability frameworks is necessary, i.e. opensystems, multiple exogenous impacts, use qualitative methods, and generate spatially specificoutcomes.