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Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change

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Author(s)
Midgley, G. F.
Thuiller, W.
Contributor(s)
Kirstenbosch Research Center ; National Botanical Institute
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA) ; Université Joseph Fourier (UJF) - Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry]) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Keywords
drought
tolerance limits
bioclimatic modelling
desert
range shifts
Low atmospheric co2
uv-b radiation
successive generations
species
distributions
habitat models
global change
south-africa
ice core
evolution
biodiversity
[SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
[SDV.BID] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity
[SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12424/246940
Online Access
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751
Abstract
International audience
We provide a position paper, using a brief literature review and some new modelling results for a subset of succulent plant species, which explores why Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change despite presumed species resilience under arid conditions, and therefore a globally important test-bed for adaptive conservation strategies. The Pleistocene climate-related evolutionary history of this region in particular may predispose Namaqualand (and Succulent Karoo) plant endemics to projected climate change impacts. Key Succulent Karoo plant lineages originated during cool Pleistocene times, and projected air temperatures under anthropogenic climate change are likely to exceed these significantly. Projected rainfall patterns are less certain, and projections of the future prevalence of coastal fog are lacking, but if either of these water inputs is reduced in concert with rising temperatures, this seems certain to threaten the persistence of, at least, narrow-endemic plant species. Simple modelling approaches show strong reduction in spatial extent of bioclimates typical of Namaqualand within the next five decades and that both generalist species with large geographic ranges, and narrow-range endemics may be susceptible to climate change induced loss of potential range. Persistence of endemics in micro-habitats that are buffered from extreme climate conditions cannot be discounted, though no attempts have been made to address this shortcoming of broader scale bioclimatic modelling. The few experimental data available on elevated temperature and drought tolerance suggest susceptibility of leaf succulent species, but high drought tolerance of non-succulent shrubs. Both species-level monitoring and further experimental work is essential to test and refine projections of climate change impacts on species persistence, and the implications for conservation. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Date
2007
Type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Identifier
oai:HAL:halsde-00283751v1
halsde-00283751
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751
DOI : 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020
DOI
: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020
ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020
Scopus Count
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Climate Ethics

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