Vulnerability of the Nile Delta to Recent and Future Climate Change

Abstract

The Nile delta is vulnerable to the impact of storm-surge and sea-level rise due to climate change, in particular the lower delta due to its relatively low elevation. This paper presents hydrodynamic simulation and observations of recent surge levels in the Mediterranean Sea offshore the delta. During a severe storm on December 11 th , 2010, the results indicate a higher surge (about 1 m) compared to typical surge values (0.4-0.5m) observed previously offshore the delta. The consequences of natural coastal risk due to current and future climate-change can be mitigated by taking appropriate measures.