印尼和越南粮食安全研究

Abstract

2007年，联合国粮农组织发出警告，指出全球粮食存量处于25年来的最低水平，根据该组织的统计数据，2008年上半年，非洲、中美洲和南亚的36个国家正面临粮食危机，东南亚地区的国家，大米出口国如泰国和越南，受国际大米价格上涨的影响，国内大米价格也快速上涨，为保障国内供应，越南紧急限制大米出口，泰国政府规定民众购买平价米必须携带户口本，大米进口国印尼和菲律宾也受到了影响，粮食危机的爆发再次使各国深刻认识到了粮食安全的重要性。东南亚国家的粮食安全状况如何？各国粮食安全都受到哪些因素的影响？这些国家的粮食安全带来的启示是什么？这些都是值得探讨的问题。 本文以印度尼西亚和越南两个国家为案例，试图对以上几个问题进行探析。本文采用供需指标和购买力方面的指标作为粮食安全的指标测度，供需指标主要包括粮食自给率、库消比、人均稻谷占有量、粮食产量、粮食产量波动系数，购买力指标则选取了粮食贫困率和粮食价格指数。通过对上述两方面指标测度分析两国粮食安全状况，并从供给因素、需求因素以及其他因素三方面对影响两国粮食安全的因素进行全面分析，最后总结出一般化的经验及教训。 纵观印尼的粮食生产的三个阶段：第一阶段（1961-1984年），粮食产量连年持续增长；第二阶段（1984-1998年），粮食产量徘徊不前；第三阶段（1999-2009年），粮食产量恢复增长，恰恰对应了粮食政策的三个阶段：第一阶段，粮食政策是以粮食生产为基本国策，对粮食生产实行高投入高保护；第二阶段的粮食政策转向低投入低保护；第三阶段，再次恢复粮食生产战略性地位。印尼政府的粮食政策和粮食波动的一致性说明了粮食政策对粮食生产长期和决定性的作用。对于发展中的人口大国而言，必须始终把粮食安全放在国策的战略高度加以重视。 2008年，世界粮食危机期间，尽管越南的大米供给完全可以满足国内的需求，但是大米价格仍然大幅上涨，导致“米荒”，越南政府被迫限制大米出口，这是越南自加入WTO以来首次限制大米出口。由此可以看出，在WTO框架下，政府对粮食生产的控制力将会减弱，粮食生产的影响因素将会更加复杂，粮价波动表现出了新的特征，这对政府粮食价格调控提出了更高要求。

In 2007, FAO issued a warning that global food stocks was at the lowest level in the past 25 years, according to the organization's statistics, in the first half of 2008, Africa, South Asia, Central America and 36 countries are facing food crisis, Southeast Asia countries, rice exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam, domestic rice prices rapid increases under the impact of rising international rice prices, to protect domestic supplies, Vietnam embargoed emergency restrictions on Vietnamese rice exports, the Thai government announced that those who want to buy cheap rice should bring the booklets, rice importing countries, Indonesia and the Philippines have also been affected, the outbreak of the food crisis once again told the countries of the importance of food security. What are the Southeast Asian countries' food security conditions? What factors affect their food security? What could we learn from ? These are the issues worth exploring. In this paper, the two countries, Indonesia and Vietnam are taken as two cases to answer the questions the above. In this paper, supply and demand indicators and the purchasing power indicators are chosen to measure the food security condition. Supply and demand indicators include food self-sufficiency, stock-to-consumption ratio, per capita consumption of rice, grain yield, grain yield fluctuation co-efficient, the purchasing power indicators include food poverty, food price index. In this paper, the food security conditions of the two countries will be measured by these indicators phase by phase, the condition of different phases will be compared, so as to analyze their trends. Under the basis of comprehensive analysis of the two countries’ food security conditions, then the influence factors (supply factors, demand factors and other factors) will be analyzed, and experiences will be summed up. Indonesia's food production period is divided into three phases: first phase (1961-1984)—the grain output continued to grow year after year; the second phase (1984-1998) —the grain output stagnating; the third phase (1999-2009) —to restore growth in food production, and these three phases are precisely corresponding to three stages of the food policy: the first stage—food policy is the basic national policy, and food production is highly protected; the second stage of food policy —food production enjoyed a low-input Low protection; the third stage—once again food production restore the strategic position. This shows that Indonesian Government's food policy play a vital and decisive role on food production. For developing country with large population, it must always put food security on top agenda of the country policy. Even though Vietnam's rice supply can meet domestic demand during world food crisis in 2008, it still suffered the problems of food security because of the sharp rise of rice prices. Vietnamese government was forced to restrict rice exports, which is the first time to take this kind of action since Vietnam's WTO accession. It can be seen that in the WTO framework, the Government will have less capable to control over food production because food production will be subject to complex factors and fluctuations in food prices which made the government regulation of food prices more difficult.

学位：经济学硕士

院系专业：南洋研究院_世界经济

学号：25520071154200