缅甸大选后的政治发展及对中缅关系的影响

Abstract

近年来，随着缅甸大选及后续政治、经济和社会改革的深入，国内外诸多学者对有关缅甸问题进行了热烈探讨，但从政治发展具体指标的研究尚不多见。本文以缅甸大选后的变化为切入点，选取政治发展这一视角，从民选政府的合法性、国内稳定和军人地位的变化深入分析缅甸大选后的政治发展。笔者在第一章梳理了缅甸独立以来不同的政治发展阶段，并从中总结出影响缅甸政治发展的主要因素有军队、反对派、少数民族武装、僧侣集团、学生团体和外部原因。第二章论述缅甸2010年大选后国内政治发展的主要变化，认为2010年大选本身没有提高新政府的合法性，但大选后大刀阔斧的改革措施及积极接触国际社会，让新政府赢得了来自国内、国际的认可；民选政府提高了政权合法性，民众对政府的认可度提高，与少数民族武装的积极和谈，建立专门政府机构推动民族和解，给予反对派一定的政治参与空间等都有利于国内走向长期稳定；军人的角色发生了转变，由执政者转变为民选政府的保障者和改革的推动者，缅甸军人在国家政治中的独特地位是其历史决定的，军人既推动了国内变革，也在宪法框架内确保了军人在缅甸未来政治中的主导地位。第三章论述缅甸国内政治发展的变化对中缅关系的影响。缅甸新政府通过全方位的改革措施赢得了国内、国际社会的合法性，缅甸在合法性层面对中国的需求和依赖降低，中国在缅甸外交中的地位发生了变化；新政府上台后提高了政权的合法性，促进了国内稳定，民众的政治参与意识明显提高，民盟等反对派以及非政府组织等行为体被允许发出越来越多的声音，对中缅经贸关系在短期内产生了诸多负面影响；缅甸军人政权走入历史，军队由对国家的绝对领导转变为对改革进程的主导，缅甸政治中的力量对比已经开始变化，反对派的作用不可忽视，其中，昂山素季将成为影响中缅关系的重要变量之一。文章最后认为，缅甸的政治转型已不可逆转，中国需要正视缅甸在中国对外关系中的重要地位，检讨过去中国对缅政策、民间交往的不足，努力改善中国在缅甸的印象，保持两国关系的稳定发展，提升中国在东南亚的影响力。

Recently, with the deepening of subsequent political, economic and social reforms after Myanmar’s 2010 election, the topic of Myanmar has been heavily discussed by scholars both at home and abroad. However, studies from the specific indicators of political development are still limited. This paper studies the changes after Myanmar’s 2010 election so as to analyze Myanmar’s political development from three aspects: the legitimacy of the Thein Sein government, domestic stability and the military status. The first chapter lists the political developments of different stages since 1948 and summarizes the main factors that influence Myanmar’s political development, which are military, opposition, ethnic armed groups, clergy group, student group and external causes. The second chapter discusses the changes of political development after Myanmar’s 2010 election. Myanmar’s internal reforms and positive engagement with the international community win recognition at home and abroad instead of election itself. Thein Sein government improves the legitimacy, conducts peace talks with ethnic armed groups, establishes specialized government agencies to promote national reconciliation, offers opposition some certain of space to take political activities are good for long-term stability. Because of Myanmar’s history, military stand a unique position in this country, now they push internal reforms but still ensures their dominate position in 2008 constitution. The third chapter analyzes the effects of the changes of Myanmar’s political development on Sino-Myanmar relations. Thein Sein government reduces the demand and dependence on China on level of legitimacy through dramatic internal reforms, China’s role in Myanmar diplomacy has changed. The opposition such as NLD and all kinds of NGOs are allowed to take more actions on internal issues, these changes are bad for Sino-Myanmar economic relations in short-term. Military junta stepped into history, military from absolute charge transforms to leader of reform, Myanmar political forces begin to change, opposition cannot be ignored, especially, Aung Sang Suu Kyi becomes one of the most important variables concern with Sino-Myanmar relations. Myanmar’s political transformation is irreversible, China needs to face the importance of Myanmar, to make efforts to improve the image of China in Myanmar, to keep stable bilateral relations, to enhance China’s positive influence in Southeast Asia.

学位：法学硕士

院系专业：南洋研究院_国际关系

学号：25520111152117