Ex-Ante Methods to Assess the Impact of Social Insurance Policies on Labor Supply with an Application to Brazil
Keywords
OUTPUTPENSION AT RETIREMENT
SALARIES
ADDITIONAL SAVINGS
OLD-AGE PENSIONS
AGE GROUP
PREVIOUS SECTION
SELF-EMPLOYMENT
LABOR DEMAND
AVERAGE WAGE
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES
LABOR TURNOVER
RETURN ON CONTRIBUTIONS
TERM CONTRACTS
MINIMUM PENSION
INFORMAL SECTORS
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
PENSION BENEFITS
UNEMPLOYMENT SPELLS
SOCIAL PENSIONS
RISK AVERSION
INCOMES
MINIMUM PENSIONS
SOCIAL PROTECTION
AVERAGE EARNING
CALCULATION
TAKE-UP RATES
WORKER CONTROLS
PUBLIC ECONOMICS
PAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEMS
YEARS OF EARNINGS
MORTALITY TABLE
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
SOCIAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS
PENSION SYSTEM
TAX
LOW INCOME
FORMAL SECTOR WAGE
UNEMPLOYED
DISMISSAL
CAPITAL ACCUMULATIONS
UNEMPLOYMENT SPELL
LABOR SUPPLY
LOW-INCOME GROUPS
INDIVIDUAL SAVINGS
RATES OF RETURN
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
PENSION
EARNING
SOCIAL INSURANCE PROGRAM
BENEFIT LEVELS
ASSET ACCUMULATIONS
PENSION EARNINGS
PUBLIC PENSIONS
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM
VALUE OF ASSETS
AVERAGE EARNINGS
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFITS
LABOR ECONOMICS
CONTRIBUTIONS
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
LABOR MARKET REGULATIONS
LABOR MOBILITY
MANDATORY SYSTEM
INNOVATION
SAVINGS CAPACITY
PRIVATE SECTOR
FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY
SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTION
BENEFITS SCHEMES
PRIVATE SECTOR WORKERS
GROSS REVENUES
PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS
ANNUITY
PENSION INCOME
PENSION SYSTEMS
BENEFIT FORMULA
PRESENT VALUE
LAYOFF
INTEREST RATES
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION
SOCIAL INSURANCE SYSTEMS
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
MOTIVATION
EMPLOYEE
MINIMUM CONTRIBUTION
LONG TERM SAVINGS
HUMAN CAPITAL
RETIREMENT AGES
EXOGENOUS SHOCKS
SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS
RETIREMENT INCOME
INFORMAL SECTOR
PENSIONS SYSTEMS
RETIREMENT DECISIONS
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFIT
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
ANNUITY FACTOR
FUTURE PENSIONS
FORMAL SECTOR WORKERS
INCOME LEVELS
SAVINGS
LABOR INCOME
UNEMPLOYMENT
SAVINGS RATES
SOCIAL INSURANCE
MORTALITY
LOW-INCOME
POLITICAL ECONOMY
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
REPLACEMENT RATE
RETIREMENT INCENTIVES
PENSION WEALTH
LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS
MORAL HAZARD
ACCESS TO CREDIT
PENSION COVERAGE
GROSS REPLACEMENT RATE
FUNDED SCHEME
PERIODS OF UNEMPLOYMENT
CALCULATIONS
INSURANCE POLICIES
RETIREMENT
RETIREMENT AGE
VALUE OF PENSION
LABOR FORCE
CONTRIBUTION PERIOD
WORKER
DISCOUNT RATE
EQUILIBRIUM WAGES
SOCIAL SECURITY
LUMP SUM
SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LABOR LEGISLATION
SELFEMPLOYMENT
PENSION FORMULA
PENSION VALUES
INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS
INCOME LEVEL
LABOR MARKET
INFORMAL SECTOR WORKERS
EARLY RETIREMENT
ECONOMIC DECISIONS
MARGINAL TAX RATE
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS
TAKE-UP RATE
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
WAGES
SALARY
MINIMUM WAGE
REAL GROWTH RATE
CURRENT PROGRAMS
PAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEM
LUMP SUM PAYMENT
PENSIONS SYSTEM
CONTRIBUTION RATE
PROGRAM COSTS
PROBABILITY
REPLACEMENT RATES
JOBS
EMPLOYMENT LEVELS
ECONOMIC THEORY
BENEFIT FORMULAS
RETIRED
WORTH
INSURANCE REFORMS
AVERAGE BENEFITS
INFLATION
RATE OF RETURN
SAVINGS ACCOUNTS
EXOGENOUS SHOCK
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
FULL-CAREER WORKERS
INTEREST RATE
CONTRIBUTION RATES
PROBABILITIES
DISABILITY
ELDERLY
RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR
EARLIER RETIREMENT
LIFE EXPECTANCY
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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4219Abstract
This paper solves and estimates a
 stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to
 assess how changes in the design of the unemployment
 benefits and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings
 rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of
 the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics
 depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding
 consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal Vs.
 informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time
 preference, and the distribution of an exogenous shock that
 affects movements in and out of the social security system
 (given individual decisions). The yearly household survey is
 used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate
 the joint distribution of model parameters based on a
 generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a
 good job in replicating the distribution of the members of a
 given cohort across states (in or out of the social security
 / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to
 individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint
 distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance
 system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how
 alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and
 through this channel benefit levels and fiscal costs. The
 results from various simulations provide three main
 insights: (i) the Brazilian SI system today might generate
 distortions (lower savings rates and less formal employment)
 that increase the costs of the system and might generate
 regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important
 interactions between the unemployment benefits and pension
 systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when
 considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be
 reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions
 and benefits and then combining matching contributions and
 anti-poverty targeted transfers to cover individuals with
 limited or no savings capacity.Date
2012-03-19Type
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working PaperIdentifier
oai:openknowledge.worldbank.org:10986/4219http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4219
Copyright/License
CC BY 3.0 IGOCollections
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