Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration

Abstract

The paper investigates the
 demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected
 population aging and low or negative growth of the
 population and labor force in the North. Without further
 immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the
 high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China,
 and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be
 reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In
 contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add
 some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia
 and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios
 to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in
 the North include moving the total fertility rate back to
 replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of
 the existing population through a variety of measures, and
 filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration.
 The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios
 may partially or even fully compensate for the projected
 labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures
 to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests
 that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate
 the required change.