Mali - The Demographic Challenge

Abstract

Mali has demographic characteristics
 similar to most sub-Saharan African countries, except for
 those of Southern Africa. The population of Mali is very
 young: in 1998, 46.3 percent of the population was under 15
 years of age. Whereas mortality, especially infant and child
 mortality, has decreased rapidly, fertility has remained
 high over the past decades, equaling 6.6 children per woman
 on average. As a result, the rate of demographic growth has
 increased significantly over the last decades. Today, the
 natural population growth rate is estimated at 3.3 percent
 per year (it will take 21 years for the population to
 double). International migration somewhat slows down this
 growth, and the net population growth rate is estimated at 3
 percent per year, which leads to a doubling of the
 population in 23 years. This study is presented in three
 chapters. The first chapter shows the present situation of
 the population of Mali and its prospects for the future.
 This chapter evaluates available demographic data, analyzes
 the size, geographic distribution as well as the structure
 and rate of growth of the population, including
 international migrations. It also presents population
 projections for the years 2005 to 2035, based on slow or
 rapid fertility decline scenarios. Chapter two is dedicated
 to the future implications of these demographic trends. It
 first addresses the development of human capital
 (demographic investment), especially in education and
 health. It then examines the macro-economic consequences of
 demographic growth for Mali. Finally, it briefly analyzes
 other consequences of the high population growth, in terms
 of increasing population density, agriculture, nutrition,
 urbanization, environmental degradation, and maternal and
 child health. The last chapter assesses the population
 policies in Mali and what is needed to set into motion a
 decline in fertility and presents practical recommendations.