Adaptation to Climate Extremes in Developing Countries : The Role of Education
PER CAPITA INCOME
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
NUMBER OF PEOPLE
CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
RISK OF DEATH
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY
MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
HIGH POPULATION GROWTH
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
DEATH FROM FLOODS
GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATION
TYPE OF DISASTER
LOSSES FROM FLOODS
DISASTER PREVENTION MEASURES
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AbstractGlobal climate models predict a rise in extreme weather in the next century. To better understand future interactions among adaptation costs, socioeconomic development, and climate change in developing countries, observed losses of life from floods and droughts during 1960-2003 are modeled using three determinants: weather events, income per capita, and female education. The analysis reveals countries with high female education weathered extreme weather events better than countries with equivalent income and weather conditions. In that case, one would expect resilience to increase with economic growth and improvements in education. The relationship between resilience in the face of extreme weather events and increases in female education expenditure holds when socioeconomic development continues but the climate does not change, and socioeconomic development continues with weather paths driven by "wet" and "dry" Global Climate Models. Educating young women may be one of the best climate change disaster prevention investments in addition to high social rates of return in overall sustainable development goals.
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Pro-Poor Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Centers : Case Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience in Kenya and NicaraguaGeorgieva, Sophia; Moser, Caroline; Stein, Alfredo; Norton, Andrew (World Bank, 2012-03-19)The objective of this economic sector work (ESW) is to address these gaps by piloting a methodology capable of quickly and cost-effectively introducing into adaptation planning processes an appreciation of the significance of climate change impacts for poor people in informal urban settlements. Specifically in the two case study sites (Mombasa in Kenya and Esteli in Nicaragua) sought to: a) make visible climate change impacts of various kinds on poor people; b) illustrate what poor households, small businesses and groups in communities are doing to cope with such climate change impacts (experienced as increasingly variable and capricious weather patterns); and c) identify how policy and institutional systems can best build on local realities to develop pro-poor urban climate change adaptation actions, particularly relating to resilience. The report introduces an asset-based framework to analyze the vulnerability of urban poor people to severe weather events whose frequency or intensity climate change may be increasing, and is very likely to increase in the future as well as their asset-based adaptation strategies as a source of long-term resilience, to cope with the onset of severe weather and to rebuild after such events. The importance of this study relates to the fact that urban centers of low and middle-income countries concentrate a large proportion of those most at risk from the effects of severe weather associated with climate change as lives, assets, environmental quality and future prosperity are threatened by 'the increasing risk of storms, flooding, landslides, heat waves and drought and by overloading water, drainage and energy supply systems'. The report describes an analytical framework and action research methodology developed so as to enable local authorities and other relevant institutions to incorporate socio-economic vulnerability and local level asset-based adaptation into climate change adaptation actions and strategies.
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Disaster Risk, Climate Change, and PovertyWard, Philip J.; Bangalore, Mook; Jongman, Brenden; Hallegatte, Stephane; Veldkamp, Ted I.E.; Winsemius, Hessel C. (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11)People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.