The potential impact of climate change on rural-urban migration in Malawi

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing concerns facing the twenty-first century. As natural
 environments change, their ability to support productive and sustainable natural-resource dependent
 livelihoods is affected. More specifically climate stresses create continuous
 pressures on rural households and shocks may create dangerous living conditions. As such,
 migration to areas that can support human survival and aspirations for a stable existence
 emerges as a possible consequence. In a rapidly urbanising world, a more stable existence may
 be found outside of the countryside and in a town. If rural dwellers choose to settle
 permanently in urban centres then urbanisation will occur.
 This study examines how the stresses and shocks associated with climate change affect rural urban
 migration in Malawi. More specifically, the study develops a theoretical framework that
 examines Malawi's migration system through a 'capabilities' and 'aspirations' lens. Using an
 aspirations and capabilities framework can help explain some key questions of migration
 system theory including how patterns of movements are determined; what situations may
 encourage or discourage the rate of movement between the rural area and the city, including
 stresses and shocks; and, how a rural individual becomes a permanent city dweller.
 The findings suggest that rural-urban migration aspirations may increase as rural life gets
 harder and, at the same time, young rural dwellers are exposed to alternative urban lifestyles.
 However, stresses reduce the migration capabilities that are needed to move to town. This has
 repercussions across the migration system, which results in fewer people who are able to
 leave the village. Following shocks, migration aspirations are at their lowest. This is because
 those who would have once migrated to town now feel an obligation to remain in the village
 where they are able to help their rural family overcome the shock. At the same time, regional
 level shocks affect the ability of urban migrants to maintain their urban livelihoods with
 implications for return migration.
 The research was approved though the University of Leeds Ethical Review Team and was
 conducted under the ethical guidelines agreed during the review.