Energy security and sustainable development implications for Guatemala of the Electricity Generation Expansion Plan 2014-2028

Abstract

Electricity consumption in Guatemala has been steadily increasing during the recent years, challenging the generation sector to keep up with the pace of electricity demand in the long term. To tackle this problem, the government of Guatemala has delineated the Electricity Generation Expansion Plan for the period 2014-2028, proposing several hypothetical future scenarios of the energy mix for electricity production. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate how the fulfillment of this plan would influence energy security and sustainable development prospects in the country. Following an assessment framework that allows a systematic evaluation of the system, indicators that reflect potential vulnerabilities and sustainability concerns are applied to the scenarios. The results show that energy security in the electricity sector could increase as a consequence of the capacity expansion and transformation of the energy mix to rely more on indigenous sources, taking into consideration scenarios with a more diversified portfolio that include the expansion of biomass and geothermal capacity to compensate for the vulnerability of hydroelectricity to weather events. The prospects for sustainable development in the country can be supported by the provision of secure electricity supply that takes into account efficiency and mitigation measures in the exploitation of natural resources, as well as social impact assessments to ensure that the plan will not affect the livelihood of vulnerable groups and has the possibility to contribute to increase equity in electricity access.