人力资本与福建经济增长探讨

Abstract

实现经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定和国际收支平衡是政府宏观调控的四大目标，其中经济增长在这四大目标中处于及其重要的地位。随着知识经济的来临和可持续发展观念的深入人心，人力资本在经济发展中的作用日益显现。人力资本由于能使其它生产要素产生递增的收益，被视为推动经济持续增长的源泉和主要动力，西方发达国家和新兴工业化国家经济发展的实践也证明了这一点。 本文以人力资本理论和新增长理论为理论依据，以福建省为研究对象，实证分析了人力资本在经济增长中的表现。论文利用福建省1978—2005年的相关数据，估算出这一时期的人力资本存量和物质资本存量，然后采用计量经济学方法，对人力资本与经济增长时间序列进行平稳性检验和协整检验，并在此基础上根据新增长理论的有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型，计算出1978—2005年期间人力资本的产出弹性以及对经济增长的贡献率。通过研究分析，本文认为福建的经济增长是物质资本驱动型的经济增长，物质资本对经济增长的贡献最大，接近50%；人力资本对经济增长的贡献并不算大，即使在考虑人力资本外溢的情形下，其贡献率也只为29.3%，但是研究也表明福建省人力资本平均水平的产出弹性为1.012，远远大于物质资本0.51的产出弹性。这个结论说明了我省目前人力资本投资的薄弱和人力资本贡献所存在的巨大潜力，从科学发展观以及经济增长方式转变的角度，这对我省今后经济发展的方向有很大的启示。 最后，根据文中定性与定量的研究结果，提出了加强人力资本投资促进福建经济增长的政策建议，具体包括：提升人力资本在经济发展战略中的地位；大力发展教育事业加快人力资本积累；加强卫生保健体系建设，建立覆盖全省的基本医疗保障制度；加强劳动力的在职培训，提高劳动者的智能和技能；鼓励劳动力的迁移流动，建立统一的劳动力市场。

To achieve economic growth, full employment, price stability and the international balance of payments are four goals the government’s macroeconomic control. It is obviously that economic growth is the most important one. With the advent of the knowledge-based economy, more and more people are aware of the importance of sustainable development, and the effect of the human capital has become increasingly significant in economic development. The human capital is regarded as the engine of economic growth due to making other factors of production yield increasing returns. The success of developed countries and newly industrialized countries in their economic development has also proven the argument. Took Fujian province as research sample, this paper analyzes empirically the effect of human capital in economic growth basing on human capital and new economic growth theory. Making use of 1978~2005 economic data of Fujian province, the article successfully estimates the human capital and physical capital every year in the period. And then the paper introduces Econometrics methods to analyze the problem. First of all, applying unit root test and co-integration test to make sure the time series of human capital and economic growth is stationary and that there is a long-run stable relationship between the two variables. Secondly, adopting the Effective Labor model and Lucas’ human capital spillover model that are commonly used in new economic growth theory to estimate the output elasticity of human capital and contribution rate of human capital to economic growth. After doing those jobs, the paper argues that Fujian province’s economic growth is driven mainly by physical capital which making greatest contribution to growth of the province, approximately 50%. By comparison, the contribution of human capital to growth is not very significant, nearly 29.3%, even if considering its spillover effect. However, the paper also concludes that the output elasticity of human capital average level is 1.012 which is far greater than 0.51, the output elasticity of physical capital. The conclusion suggests that the human capital investment in Fujian province is weak but it still possesses great potential in economic growth. From the perspective of the scientific development concept and transformation of economic growth mode, the conclusion will give us helpful inspiration. Finally, the paper proposes some advices to boost the human capital investment and economic growth according to the qualitative and quantitative analysis conclusion. These advices are as follows: Enhance the status of human capital in the strategy of economic development; Develop education to speed up human capital accumulation; Establish the basic medical care system covering all over the province; Strengthen on-the-job training to improve intelligence and skills of the workers; Encourage labor force to migrate freely to establish a unified labor force market.

学位：经济学硕士

院系专业：经济学院经济系_经济思想史

学号：20051300697