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Bulgaria : Public Expenditures for Growth and CompetitivenessWorld Bank (Washington, DC, 2012-03)Bulgaria's economy performed
 relatively well during the crisis and the economy is
 reviving. In comparison with other Tenth European Union
 (EU10) countries, for Bulgaria the drop in Gross Domestic
 Product, or GDP growth was below the median, fiscal
 performance deteriorated less, and public debt stayed among
 the lowest in the entire EU. In late January 2011 the EC
 concluded that in 2010 Bulgaria had made significant
 progress in deficit reduction and is on track to exit the
 excessive deficit procedure in 2011. The large macroeconomic
 imbalances observed in 2005-08 had been corrected by 2010
 with relatively little negative impact on growth relative to
 other EU10 countries. Since late 2010 Bulgaria's
 recovery has been driven by net exports; investment and
 consumption are recovering more slowly. As long as the
 economic environment remains favorable and structural
 reforms are implemented as planned, the economy should reach
 and even exceed its pre-crisis level in 2012. This report is
 intended to inform policy makers, the international
 community, and civil society about Bulgaria's recent
 economic performance and its options for reforming public
 spending to enhance competitiveness and growth. It first
 reviews Bulgaria's growth strategy and its fiscal
 adjustment over the last several years and the medium-term
 challenges it confronts. The report then analyzes
 Bulgaria's export performance to identify comparative
 advantages and outline policy options to enhance
 competitiveness in the medium term. Reforms should focus on
 improving the productivity of the public sector to enhance
 service delivery, improve the business environment, and
 upgrade infrastructure. The report identifies two general
 areas for reform: (i) the wage bill and public employment;
 and (ii) management of public investment.
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South East Europe, No. 9, Spring 2016World Bank Group (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06-02)Growth in the six South East European
 countries (SEE6) rebounded to 2.1 percent in 2015, as
 investment revived. The SEE6 region is not only growing but
 also rebalancing to more durable sources of growth. While
 higher growth in 2015 brought new jobs in the private
 sector, and helped poverty reduction to resume, unemployment
 is still entrenched. In 2015, fiscal deficits continued to
 narrow in all SEE6 countries except Montenegro. With
 inflation at historic lows, accommodative monetary policy
 supported growth, and credit to the economy slowly began to
 grow. The near-term baseline outlook for the region is
 positive. Fiscal and current account deficits must decline
 further to support growth. Sustaining the nascent
 rebalancing requires unlocking the growth potential of the
 SEE6 economics by reversing productivity dynamics that have
 been deteriorating since 2008. The agenda for reducing the
 structural rigidities that impede growth is broad based and
 centered on five pillars: eliminate disincentives and
 barriers to formal; employment; improve the business climate
 and governance; reduce the size of government while
 improving quality of service delivery; deepen trade and
 financial integration; and ensure that natural resource use
 is sustainable.
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Protecting Public Investment against Shocks in the West African Economic and Monetary Union : Options for Fiscal Rules and Risk SharingDessus, Sébastien; Varoudakis, Aristomene (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08)West African Economic and Monetary Union arrangements have been instrumental in helping member countries maintain low inflation. However, a lesser-known characteristic of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, with possible implications for economic growth, is the high exposure to shocks and the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy associated with these arrangements. Evidence from a panel of 80 low-income and lower middle-income countries over the period 1995-2012 suggests that, in the Union, both public investment and current public expenditure are more pro-cyclical than they are in other countries. In particular, public investment contracts more in "bad times" than it increases in "good times" in order to absorb negative shocks to the budget in the context of strict fiscal convergence criteria. The asymmetric response of public investment to shocks could thus be a reason for the relatively low levels of infrastructure in the Union. Comparisons with earlier periods suggest that public investment has become pro-cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. Moreover, the shocks that affect Union member countries appear to be highly idiosyncratic and thus difficult to mitigate by the Union's common monetary policy. The pro-cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect Union member countries justify exploring options for greater counter-cyclicality of rules-based fiscal frameworks and for risk-sharing.