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Belarus Public Expenditure Review : Fiscal Reforms for a Sustainable Economic RecoveryBelarus faces significant fiscal
 challenges, stemming from the structural features of its
 economic model. As of mid-2011, under a severe exchange rate
 and balance of payments crisis, the Government needs to
 pursue a carefully sequenced strategy of macroeconomic
 adjustment coupled with a strong program of structural
 reforms. This programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER)
 fiscal policy options to simultaneously tackle the need for
 fiscal consolidation as well as the structural challenges
 with significant fiscal linkages. The options for fiscal
 reform proposed in this report are estimated to generate
 average net fiscal savings of 3.9 percent of Gross Domestic
 product (GDP) annually over the medium term. Given the
 implied structural changes in the expenditure program, the
 fiscal impact of these reforms extends beyond the four year
 projection period.
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Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of RussiaRussia entered the global crisis with
 strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal
 and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis
 shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in
 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the
 global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically
 altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and
 fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on
 a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis
 thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal
 reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will
 nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment
 in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures
 will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of
 GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to
 keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5
 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure
 needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability.
 Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain
 its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI)
 equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper,
 its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path.
 The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit
 is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009
 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP,
 this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment
 over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social
 security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes
 represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.
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Protecting Public Investment against Shocks in the West African Economic and Monetary Union : Options for Fiscal Rules and Risk SharingWest African Economic and Monetary Union arrangements have been instrumental in helping member countries maintain low inflation. However, a lesser-known characteristic of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, with possible implications for economic growth, is the high exposure to shocks and the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy associated with these arrangements. Evidence from a panel of 80 low-income and lower middle-income countries over the period 1995-2012 suggests that, in the Union, both public investment and current public expenditure are more pro-cyclical than they are in other countries. In particular, public investment contracts more in "bad times" than it increases in "good times" in order to absorb negative shocks to the budget in the context of strict fiscal convergence criteria. The asymmetric response of public investment to shocks could thus be a reason for the relatively low levels of infrastructure in the Union. Comparisons with earlier periods suggest that public investment has become pro-cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. Moreover, the shocks that affect Union member countries appear to be highly idiosyncratic and thus difficult to mitigate by the Union's common monetary policy. The pro-cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect Union member countries justify exploring options for greater counter-cyclicality of rules-based fiscal frameworks and for risk-sharing.