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Uganda Economic Update, June 2014 : Reducing Old Age and Economic VulnerabilitiesThis is the fourth edition of the Uganda
 Economic Update series. As with previous editions, this
 update first provides information related to the current
 state of the economy before focusing on a particular subject
 of importance. The special focus of this issue concerns how
 pensions can reduce vulnerabilities at both individual and
 macroeconomic levels. The Ugandan economy has continued the
 process of recovery, growing by 5.9 percent during the first
 half of FY2013 and FY2014 amidst droughts, disruptions
 related to civil unrest in South Sudan, and aid cuts. Eight
 consecutive quarters of positive growth since the slump in
 FY2011 and FY2012 confirm that the economy has returned on
 the strong growth path and may reach a rate of growth of 6.0
 percent per annum in FY2013 and FY2014. The positive outlook
 is subject to risks, key among which will be those emanating
 from its fiscal management regime due to continuous low
 revenue collection and reduction of aid to Uganda; increased
 spending pressures in the advent of the 2016 elections, and
 accelerating public investments amidst gaps in public
 investment efficiency. In addition, given its recently
 increased dependency on the South Sudan market for its
 exports, the protracted crisis in South Sudan could have
 severe consequences to the Ugandan economy. In that context,
 a coherent policy of social protection, including for the
 elderly, can promote social transformation and accelerate
 economic development. An effective social protection system
 is needed to protect vulnerable groups from negative shocks
 such as loss of employment, death of bread winner, or bad
 weather. Achieving the vision of a transformed Uganda means
 addressing vulnerabilities at both individual and at country
 levels. Uganda is already taking steps to start building an
 effective pension system, but challenges remain in ensuring
 transparent and proper governance of the pension funds;
 achieving efficiency objectives, building up the
 institutional capacity, and managing the fiscal pressures
 due to expenses to existing pensions and the new public
 pension scheme at the same time. Well designed and managed
 pension systems can contribute significantly to the
 country's ongoing transformation.
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Trade and Trade Finance Developments in 14 Developing Countries Post September 2008 : A World Bank SurveyIn the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers
 collapse in September 2008, drop in the supply of trade
 finance, a critical engine for trade transactions, has
 become an acute concern for the development community. Banks
 were increasing pricing on trade finance transactions to
 cover increased funding costs and higher credit risks, and
 trade was dropping drastically in most countries, with
 global trade projected to decline in 2009 for the first time
 in decades. Yet, little was known about the real impact of
 the crisis on developing country s capacity to export. The
 World Bank has commissioned a firm and bank survey on trade
 and trade finance developments in developing countries
 during the first quarter of 2009 to collect field
 information. In total, 425 firms and 78 banks were surveyed
 in 14 developing countries across five regions. This paper
 summarizes the findings of the survey as well as discusses
 the type of policies governments and international
 organizations put in place to mitigate the impact of the
 crisis. In sum, the survey findings confirmed that the
 global financial crisis has constrained trade finance for
 exporters and importers in developing countries. But the
 impact varied by the firm size, sectoral activity, and
 countries integration into the global economy. In
 particular, SMEs were particularly affected, and export
 diversification was made more difficult, especially in low
 income countries. Nevertheless, drop in demand has emerged
 as the top concern of firms at the time when the survey was
 conducted in March-April 2009.
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Capital Account Liberalization : What Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?Capital account liberalization, it is
 fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least
 understood policies of our day. One reason is that different
 theoretical perspectives have very different implications
 for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows. Another
 is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive
 results. The answer, another influential strand of thought
 contends, is that this efficient-markets paradigm is
 fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows.
 Limits on capital movements are a distortion. It is an
 implication of the theory of the second best that removing
 one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other
 distortions are present.