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Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2015Midway through 2015, Indonesia remains
 confronted with an uncertain external environment, and
 domestic economic policy challenges have intensified. GDP
 decelerated to below 5 percent in the first quarter and
 private consumption expenditure, Indonesia’s engine of
 growth in recent years, is also slowing. Weaker growth has
 resulted in slower job creation, with recent employment
 rising only just enough to absorb the increase in working
 age population. While the commodity downturn since 2012 and
 policy response have affected output growth the most in
 resource-rich provinces, employment creation has come under
 pressure across Indonesia. Yet the scope for policy stimulus
 is limited and monetary policy in particular is constrained
 due to sticky inflation and persistent external vulnerabilities.
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Kenya Economic Update, June 2005, No. 12Kenya’s economic performance remains solid, underpinned by strong infrastructure spending and consumer
 demand, which are driving growth. Growth in 2015 is estimated at 5.4 percent, a 0.6 percent downward revision
 from its estimate in December 2014. The revision reflects the strong headwinds the economy is facing in the foreign
 exchange market and the monetary policy response to calm those fears.
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Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of RussiaRussia entered the global crisis with
 strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal
 and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis
 shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in
 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the
 global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically
 altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and
 fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on
 a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis
 thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal
 reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will
 nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment
 in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures
 will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of
 GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to
 keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5
 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure
 needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability.
 Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain
 its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI)
 equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper,
 its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path.
 The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit
 is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009
 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP,
 this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment
 over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social
 security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes
 represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.