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A Changing China : Implications for Developing CountriesThree decades of rapid growth and
 structural change have transformed China into an
 upper-middle-income country and global economic powerhouse.
 China's transformations over this period wielded
 increasing influence over the development path of other
 countries, either directly through bilateral trade and
 financial flows or indirectly through growth spillovers and
 terms of trade effects. Looking ahead, as China embarks on a
 new phase in its development journey, a phase characterized
 by slower but higher-quality growth, the economic landscape
 facing the developing world is expected to be redefined yet
 again. As China changes, so will its interactions with the
 outside world. China is expected to remain both a market and
 a competitor, but its changes are likely to lead to new
 opportunities for many and new challenges for some. Key
 questions in this respect are: (i) how will the level and
 composition of China's import demand evolve as its
 economy slows and rebalances; (ii) to what extent will the
 presumed out-migration of labor-intensive manufacturing
 materialize and create new opportunities elsewhere; and
 (iii) how quickly will China move up the value chain and
 redefine its competitive advantage in the global
 marketplace? How these uncertain long-term developments
 affect individual countries will depend on differences in
 total supply chain costs, resource availability, and
 innovation capability. As in the past, China's
 transformations are expected to put formidable pressure on
 countries to adapt and reform, requiring both political will
 and entrepreneurial capacity, in a collective race where
 success will be measured against a rapidly moving frontier.
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Latin America Copes with Volatility, the Dark Side of GlobalizationLatin American and Caribbean (LAC)
 region were bumping against capacity constraints with
 unemployment reaching historically low levels and economic
 activity hitting bottlenecks and central banks were thus
 engaged in combating upward price pressures through tighter
 monetary policies. The focus of attention was, as a result,
 shifting towards the longer-term growth and equity agendas
 in what appeared to be a more tranquil global environment.
 This LAC region continues on a relatively robust growth path
 after a remarkable performance in the aftermath of the
 global financial crisis. In effect, as discussed in our
 April 2011 report "LAC success put to the test,"
 the region's recession in 2009 was relatively short
 lived and surprisingly mild compared to other middle-income
 countries (MICs) and to its own past and its recovery in
 2010-2011 strong. This report starts by setting the stage on
 the external environment. It provides an overview of recent
 economic developments and the prospects for the LAC region
 in coming months, including an analysis of the sources of
 external risks for the region.
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Globalized, Resilient, DynamicMany countries in the Latin America and
 the Caribbean (LAC) region, especially in South America,
 fared well during the global crisis and are now on a strong
 growth path. The region s recession in 2009 was relatively
 short lived and, with the notable exception of Mexico,
 remarkably mild. The current pace of economic recovery is
 exceeding expectations, with gross domestic product (GDP)
 projected to grow in the 5-6 percent range in 2010. This
 report discusses LAC's newfound resilience in the midst
 of financial globalization, examining key features of the
 cyclical behavior of LAC economies in comparison to other
 emerging economies and to its own past. Resilience is
 defined throughout this report in a broad sense to denote
 the ability of an economy to navigate with minimum
 disturbances through shocks, cushioning their negative
 spillovers in bad times, and recovering fast after a
 downturn. The report is structured as follows: first, it
 evaluates the relative performance of LAC countries during
 the contractionary period generated by the recent global
 crisis, to shed light on LAC's ability to shield its
 economies or soften the blow of a large external shock.
 Second, a similar exercise is conducted for the recovery
 phase of the cycle, when in the aftermath of an external
 shock more resilient countries will be expected to have a
 faster and more robust recovery. Third, it takes a deeper
 look at the different driving forces behind the recovery,
 including the role of domestic demand, commodity prices, and
 the connection to emerging Asia. Fourth, it provides
 evidence of the ability of different countries in LAC to
 conduct counter-cyclical policies in response to the global
 financial crisis. Lastly, a concluding section warns about
 the main macro-financial tensions and challenges lying ahead
 for the region.