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Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan : Options for Immediate Fiscal Adjustment and Longer Term ConsolidationThis report aims to provide options for
 immediate fiscal adjustment to the government of Jordan and
 to set the foundations for longer term consolidation. To
 that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of revenues and
 expenditures over the years 2000-2011 is undertaken.
 Specifically, this report attempts to provide options to
 stop and reverse the declining trend in revenues observed
 since 2007. Indeed, domestic revenues declined by 9.4
 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2011. This steady
 and structural decline in revenues increased the
 vulnerability of Jordan s public finances to any exogenous
 shock. Hence, the strong fiscal stress at the eve of the
 Arab Awakening, due to the pressures to finance widening
 power sector deficit following the disruption of Egyptian
 gas supply, and to meet popular demand for additional
 spending and subsidies. The report also examines: 1)
 potential sources of savings from current and capital
 spending, 2) scenarios to reduce power sector deficit
 including tariff simulations, 3) options to reduce consumer
 subsidies and target them more efficiently to the poor, and
 4) options to reduce the financial deficit of the water
 sector. The report ranks the measures according to a rating
 mechanism that takes into account the magnitude of savings,
 the efficiency improvements in the use of public resources,
 the distributional impact, previous dynamic of the spending
 or revenue item in question, the poverty and social impact,
 and the growth impact. Finally, the report proposes a matrix
 of policy objectives and actions that identifies areas of
 policy reform, policy objectives, actions needed to reach
 this objective, and time horizon.
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Uganda Economic Update, June 2014 : Reducing Old Age and Economic VulnerabilitiesThis is the fourth edition of the Uganda
 Economic Update series. As with previous editions, this
 update first provides information related to the current
 state of the economy before focusing on a particular subject
 of importance. The special focus of this issue concerns how
 pensions can reduce vulnerabilities at both individual and
 macroeconomic levels. The Ugandan economy has continued the
 process of recovery, growing by 5.9 percent during the first
 half of FY2013 and FY2014 amidst droughts, disruptions
 related to civil unrest in South Sudan, and aid cuts. Eight
 consecutive quarters of positive growth since the slump in
 FY2011 and FY2012 confirm that the economy has returned on
 the strong growth path and may reach a rate of growth of 6.0
 percent per annum in FY2013 and FY2014. The positive outlook
 is subject to risks, key among which will be those emanating
 from its fiscal management regime due to continuous low
 revenue collection and reduction of aid to Uganda; increased
 spending pressures in the advent of the 2016 elections, and
 accelerating public investments amidst gaps in public
 investment efficiency. In addition, given its recently
 increased dependency on the South Sudan market for its
 exports, the protracted crisis in South Sudan could have
 severe consequences to the Ugandan economy. In that context,
 a coherent policy of social protection, including for the
 elderly, can promote social transformation and accelerate
 economic development. An effective social protection system
 is needed to protect vulnerable groups from negative shocks
 such as loss of employment, death of bread winner, or bad
 weather. Achieving the vision of a transformed Uganda means
 addressing vulnerabilities at both individual and at country
 levels. Uganda is already taking steps to start building an
 effective pension system, but challenges remain in ensuring
 transparent and proper governance of the pension funds;
 achieving efficiency objectives, building up the
 institutional capacity, and managing the fiscal pressures
 due to expenses to existing pensions and the new public
 pension scheme at the same time. Well designed and managed
 pension systems can contribute significantly to the
 country's ongoing transformation.
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Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of RussiaRussia entered the global crisis with
 strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal
 and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis
 shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in
 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the
 global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically
 altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and
 fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on
 a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis
 thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal
 reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will
 nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment
 in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures
 will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of
 GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to
 keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5
 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure
 needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability.
 Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain
 its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI)
 equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper,
 its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path.
 The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit
 is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009
 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP,
 this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment
 over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social
 security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes
 represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.