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State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010The carbon market endured its most challenging year to date in 2009. The global economic crisis, which started in late 2008 and intensified early in 2009, negatively impacted both the demand and supply sides of the market. As industrial output plummeted the demand for carbon assets fell. Yet even as global GDP declined by 0.6 percent in 2009, and at a more perilous rate of 3.2 percent in industrialized economies, the carbon market demonstrated resilience. The total value of the market grew 6 percent to US$144 billion ( 103 billion) by year s end with 8.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) trade.
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"Green Stimulus," Economic Recovery, and Long-Term Sustainable DevelopmentThis paper discusses short-run and long-run effects of "green stimulus" efforts, and compares these effects with "non-green" fiscal stimuli. Green stimulus is defined here as short-run fiscal stimuli that also serve a "green" or environmental purpose in a situation of "crisis" characterized by temporary under-employment. A number of recently enacted national stimulus packages contain sizeable "green" components. The authors categorize effects according to their a) short-run employment effects, b) long-run growth effects, c) effects on carbon emissions, and d) "co-benefit" effects (on the environment, natural resources, and for other externalities). The most beneficial "green" programs in times of crisis are those that can stimulate employment in the short run, and lead to large "learning curve" effects via lower production costs in the longer term. The overall assessment is that most "green stimulus" programs that have large short-run employment and environmental effects are likely to have less significant positive effects for long-run growth, and vice versa, implying a trade-off in many cases between short-run and long-run impacts. There are also trade-offs for employment generation in that programs that yield larger (smaller) employment effects tend to lead to more employment gains for largely lower-skilled (higher-skilled) workers, so that the long-term growth effects are relatively small (large). Ultimately, the results reinforce the point that different instruments are needed for addressing different problems.
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Tax Policy to Reduce Carbon Emissions in South AfricaNoting that South Africa may be one of the few African countries that could contribute to mitigating climate change, the authors explore the impact of a carbon tax relative to alternative energy taxes on economic welfare. Using a disaggregate general-equilibrium model of the South African economy, they capture the structural characteristics of the energy sector, linking a supply mix that is heavily skewed toward coal to energy use by different sectors and hence their carbon content. The authors consider a "pure" carbon tax as well as various proxy taxes such as those on energy or energy-intensive sectors like transport and basic metals, all of which achieve the same level of carbon reduction. In general, the more targeted the tax to carbon emissions, the better the welfare results. If a carbon tax is feasible, it will have the least marginal cost of abatement by a substantial amount when compared to alternative tax instruments. If a carbon tax is not feasible, a sales tax on energy inputs is the next best option. Moreover, labor market distortions such as labor market segmentation or unemployment will likely dominate the welfare and equity implications of a carbon tax for South Africa. This being the case, if South Africa were able to remove some of the distortions in the labor market, the cost of carbon taxation would be negligible. In short, the discussion of carbon taxation in South Africa can focus on considerations other than the economic welfare costs, which are likely to be quite low.