Transition Amid Risks with a Special Focus on Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

Abstract

Somalis face a daunting development challenge to overcome the legacy of two decades of sustained conflict and fragility, but substantial progress is now being made. Since 1991 and the collapse of the Siad Barre regime, Somalia has experienced cycles of conflict and fragility that fragmented the country, undermined legitimate institutions, and created widespread vulnerability. The new government that emerged following the Transitional Federal Government and the Roadmap to End the Transition in 2012 inherited a dysfunctional economy facing high levels of poverty and inequality, a youth bulge, high unemployment, and large infrastructure gaps. Against a backdrop of political progress marked by the emergence of new Federal Member States (FMSs) within the new constitutional framework and continued insecurity, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has embarked on a process of structural, legislative, and institutional reform. The economy is starting to respond: Somalis are returning from abroad to invest, shops are opening, and the property market is booming. This is the first economic update for Somalia since the 2005 World Bank country economic memorandum for Somalia. The long conflict made monitoring of economic and social data nearly impossible since the late 1980s. With the relative stability of the past few years, new data have become available. The update is divided into two parts. Part one presents information on the social, economic, and governance status of Somalia. Part two focuses on intergovernmental fiscal relations.