Unsatisfactory knowledge of historical trends predetermines confusion of politicians, experts and businessmen in the face of the future. Together with the seriousness of the challenges facing modern Russia and the entire world, all this results in high strategic vulnerability of major decisions being made nowadays in Russia and the world community. The multifactorial analysis made by us allowed to find out rather distinct rhythms in occurrence, actualization and change of series of development strategic problems of Russia. They are expressed in dynamics of such major society subsystems as its economy, science and culture, positioning in the world, political systems, etc. Reconstruction of picture of the past through the prism of long-term fluctuations of the strategic problems that need solution by means of the internal and foreign strategies, provides us with the very important information about the system's capabilities, including opportunities to develop democracy. In turn, it also allows to make some assessments about the future scenarios for all components of the social system.

First. World GDP is about $70 trln. Taking into account shadow economy sector, illegal and criminal economic activities we can discover that at least ¼ of global GDP is devoted to goods and services bringing profits to producers but harmful to consumers or society in general. Second. Look at the financial sector. Over $ 700 trln are presented by derivatives. It’s 10 times more than world GDP. Of course, not all these financial papers bring negative results. But we understand that at least ½ of all financial bubbles are good only for speculative agents and tend to be a great threat to world consumers. They provoked global financial crisis. The bubble burst and drowned the whole world in crisis caused by such a dept. Third. There are approximately 7 bln people in the world. 0,5 bln of them are entrepreneurs. They hire few billion employees. So at least 150 mln business leaders are agents of negative games, win-lose games. Can imagine, so many businessmen are devil’s advocates, whose only aim is the profit by any means! How to survive in these circumstances? What can we rely on in the future? There are three global drivers for better future.

The report presents a model of the strategic matrix permitting to simulate both perspective and retrospective dynamics of countries, regions, and corporations. Forecast studies of 50 countries worldwide as well as a number of regional conflicts have been performed based on this model and the Strategic Matrix software system. This article addresses the general overview of the model, key scenarios of international relations, preliminary considerations evaluating a strategic potential of selected Mediterranean countries.