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A 25th anniversary redux of the simon and ehrlich global sustainabilty wager
Fitzpatrick, Thomas M. Spohn, Karen
Fitzpatrick, Thomas M.
Spohn, Karen
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n08085.pdf
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the global sustainability bet made between Julian Simon noted conservative economist and author of the book The Ultimate Resource and Paul Ehrlich noted environmentalist and author of the book The Population Time Bomb. The paper replicates the bet using the same basket of metals and examines their changes from 1990 to 2005. The underlying premise of the “redux” is to see if global economic integration and rising middle class consumption in the developing world will alter the outcome. In the original bet Julian Simon won and Paul Ehrlich wrote a check for the basket of metals differential value of $567.07. So it will be interesting to see how the basket valuation changes after 25 years of significant global social and economic change. In the bet between Simon and Ehrlich the larger debate between Malthusians and Cornucopians plays out and the paper reflects upon this dialectic throughout the narrative. So regardless of the outcome an interesting story will emerge regarding global environmental sustainability and economic and environmental paradigms.
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2009-02
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With permission of the license/copyright holder